Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Individual Prediction of Cardiovascular Events in Childhood Cancer Survivors
Key result
Prediction models incorporating traditional cardiovascular risk factors and cancer treatments achieved AUCs ≥0.70 for predicting heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke in cancer survivors.
Why the study?
Childhood cancer survivors face elevated risks of heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, and may benefit from prediction models incorporating both cardiotoxic cancer treatments and traditional cardiovascular risk factors.
Can prediction models incorporating traditional cardiovascular risk factors and cancer treatment exposures accurately predict incident heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke in childhood cancer survivors?
Population
22 643 Childhood Cancer Survivor Study participants and 5056 siblings
Comparison
Cancer survivors vs sibling comparators across traditional and treatment-related risk factors
Design
Cohort study with discovery and replication cohorts
Follow-up
Through age 50 years
Authors
Discussion
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Member takes
Implication
May support risk stratification in childhood cancer survivors; leaves open need for external validation before clinical use.
Study Design
Type
Cohort (n=27,699)
Structured PICO
Can prediction models incorporating traditional cardiovascular risk factors and cancer treatment exposures accurately predict incident heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke in childhood cancer survivors?
P
Population
22,643 childhood cancer survivors and 5,056 sibling comparators followed through age 50 years to develop and validate cardiovascular event prediction models.
E
Exposure
Risk prediction models incorporating demographic, cancer treatment (anthracycline chemotherapy, radiotherapy), hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes information
C
Comparator
5,056 siblings
O
Outcome
Incident heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke through age 50 yearshard clinical
Traditional cardiovascular risk factors combined with cancer treatment history effectively predict long-term risk of heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke in adult survivors of childhood cancer.
Cite This Study
Chen et al. (2019) conducted a cohort in Childhood cancer survivors (n=27,699). Traditional cardiovascular risk factors and cancer treatment exposures vs. Siblings was evaluated on Incident heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Prediction models incorporating traditional cardiovascular risk factors and cancer treatments achieved AUCs ≥0.70 for predicting heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke in cancer survivors.