Physics of Dust Storm Plume Formation From a Stationary Source in the Aralkum Desert and Forecasting Its Propagation Under Specified Summer Wind Regimes

This paper examines an empirical model based on the cubic dependence of deflation capacity (W) on wind speed (V), incorporating the threshold velocity for particle lifting (Vo = 5 m/s). To evaluate the spatial distribution of pollution, a modified Gaussian plume dispersion model was applied, accounting for the gravitational settling velocity of particles ( Vo = 0,02 m/s) at transport distances up to 1200 km. Absolute deposition rates of sand-salt particles across Uzbekistan were determined for a 24-hour storm cycle. In the near-source zone (Nukus), extreme deposition values reached up to 150 t/km², whereas in remote regions (Tashkent, Fergana, Termez), the deposition density varied between 0.5 and 1.8 t/km². The northwest and north wind directions were identified as the most detrimental to the economy of Uzbekistan, as the dust plumes cover densely populated oases and critical irrigation systems. The proposed methodology enables the development of a «forecast library» containing quantitative estimates of sand-salt pollution scales across Uzbekistan for various wind directions and speeds across different seasons. This provides a scientific rationale for prioritizing the stabilization of the most erosion-prone areas (puffy solonchaks) to minimize salt transport concentrations. Overall, the findings strongly emphasize the necessity of establishing an automated early warning system for dust storm initiation and dynamics based on the methodological approach developed in this study. Vegetative stabilization of puffy solonchaks remains a priority strategy for environmental protection to reduce the soil erosion coefficient (k).