Meteorological Features of Dust Storms With a Center in the Aralkum Desert

This article examines the meteorological and synoptic factors initiating and regulating dust storm patterns in the Aralkum Desert (on the dried bed of the Aral Sea). Using statistical analysis of long-term meteorological datasets from 2000 to 2024 at representative stations in the Southern Aral Sea region (Aral Sea, Muynak, Ustyurt) and expedition data, the authors identified key climatic trends in the region. A steady average annual decrease in precipitation (on average -0.7 mm/year) was recorded, accompanied by a simultaneous increase in the number of days with dust storms at an average rate of 0.67% per year. This paper details the synoptic mechanisms of dust intensification associated with the trajectories of southern (South Caspian and Murgab) and northwestern cyclones, as well as eastern anticyclones. Discrepancies between surface meteorological observations and hydrodynamic models for the high-altitude tracks of fine-particle dust removal during the winter period are identified and substantiated. For the warm period (April–October), a classification of four weather sequences is proposed that determine the deflation potential of the underlying surface (salt-chalk "powder"), depending on its moisture content, degree of erosion, the state of the protective salt crust, and previous wind conditions. The results obtained are of high practical significance for the verification of regional dust transport models and environmental monitoring in the Aral Sea region.