Eastern and southern Asian gymnosperms are doomed to extinction under climate change

Gymnosperms play important ecological and evolutionary roles, but many species in Asia are increasingly threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Here we examined current gymnosperm diversity using species richness, geographic rarity and evolutionary uniqueness, and combined ecological niche modelling with measures of species richness to examine patterns of gymnosperm diversity in eastern and southern Asia under past, present, and future climates. We found that the Hengduan Mountains and parts of central Japan contain especially high diversity, while southwestern, southern, and southeastern China hold many evolutionarily distinct and geographically restricted species. Climate projections suggest that many current diversity hotspots could lose most suitable habitat by 2100, with 33 species facing possible extinction and 29 becoming highly vulnerable. Future climate refugia are predicted mainly in Indochina, India, southern China, Taiwan, and the southern Himalayas. Our results highlight the urgent need to expand protected areas and consider assisted migration for vulnerable species. Gymnosperm diversity in eastern and southern Asia is highly threatened by climate change, with most current hotspots projected to lose suitable habitat and face extinctions by 2100, based on ecological niche modeling of over 200 species across past, present, and future climates.