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June 29, 2026Scientific ReportsOpen Access

Predicting the flood susceptibility under land use and climate change scenarios using deep learning algorithms

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Authors

RMRaoof MostafazadehUniversity of Mohaghegh ArdabiliAKAli Nasiri KhiaviTarbiat Modares UniversitySMShahnaz MirzaeiGorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

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Implication

Randomized trial predicts future flood generation potential in semi-arid basins, indicating urgent need for protective policies.

Key Points

  • To predict future flood generation potential under land use and climate change scenarios in the Gharesou Watershed.
  • Simulated future land use from 2034–2054 using Markov chain modeling.
  • Downscaled climate variables (temperature, precipitation) under three SSP scenarios using change-factor method.
  • Mapped flood generation potential using CNN, MLP, and DNN algorithms validated against observed discharge data.
  • Projected natural vegetation decline by 20.9% by 2054, while agricultural and residential lands expand.
  • Temperature increases by 3.5–4.5 °C and extreme rainfall events become more frequent despite a decline in annual maximum precipitation.
  • High- to very-high-risk flood zones increased from 62% to 87% under the optimized CNN model, with land-use change accounting for 60-70% of increased risk.

Cite This Study

Mostafazadeh et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a420b08f91bb43ea9192246https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-60216-3
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Forecasting Land Use Change Trends and Their Impact on Flood Vulnerability: A Case Study of the Aq‐Qala Basin, Iran2026
  2. 2Impact of climate change on future flood susceptibility using different climatic parameters and deep learning algorithms in eastern Himalayan region2026
  3. 3Global flood projection and socioeconomic implications under a physics-constrained deep learning framework2024
  4. 4Comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate and land use changes on flood damage (Case study: AqQala, Iran)2024 · 11 citations
  5. 5Assessing Independent and Combined Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Basin Runoff: A Remote Sensing, Statistical and Hydrological Modeling Approach2025