From Field to Fabric: Challenges and Strategies for Xinjiang’s Cotton Industry in the Era of Consumer-Led Upgrading

Xinjiang cotton is strategically vital to China’s agricultural economy and the global textile supply chain. However, its sustainable development faces systemic challenges. This study employs a multi-method approach – including surveys, decision tree modeling, and big data analytics – to diagnose these issues from farmer, enterprise, and consumer perspectives. Results reveal a critical structural imbalance: although Xinjiang produces 92.8% of China’s cotton, upstream supply is constrained by mechanization-induced quality degradation (reported by 58% of farmers) and severe talent shortages (noted by 87.5% of enterprises). Meanwhile, downstream demand increasingly prioritizes comfort, safety, and environmental attributes. To reconcile this disconnect and advance cleaner, more sustainable industrial development, we propose an integrated five-dimensional strategy focusing on technological empowerment, talent cultivation, demand-responsive production, policy support, and international cooperation. This research offers preliminary evidence-based pathways for transitioning the cotton sector toward higher quality and sustainability, which warrant further validation.