The Survival of China's food imports and the impact of geopolitical risks

This study aims to systematically examine the survival characteristics of China's food import trade relationships and quantify the impact of geopolitical risks on import stability to inform food security policy.Utilizing HS 6-digit code data from 2002 to 2022, this study investigates the survival of China's food imports and the impact of source countrygeopolitical risks. The principal findings are outlined below. The 2,071 trade spells have an average length of 2.876 years. The hazard rate of China's food import interruption reached 0.592 in the first year, but it decreases as the duration extends. Compared withmajor food-importing countries, China's food imports feature a significant number of short-term trade relationships, with survival rates persistently at lower levels. Compared with those of cereals and tubers, the survival of imported legumes is more stable. Increases in source countriesgeopolitical risks markedly increasethe hazard rate for China's food imports from them. For countries that have established free trade agreements with China, the enhancing effect of geopolitical risks on the hazard rate is diminished. Similarly, for the OECD countries that have signed Belt and Road cooperation documents with China, the enhancing effect is mitigated. On the basis ofthe main conclusions, policy implications are proposed to ensure food security.