Machine Learning With Genetic and Clinical Data to Predict Ischemic Outcomes After PCI

Ischemic events after contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are uncommon but carry high morbidity/mortality. Identifying patients at highest risk is critical to guide dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) intensity while minimizing bleeding. Current machine learning (ML) model-developed risk scores do not incorporate pharmacogenetic data. To develop and externally validate ML models that integrate clinical, demographic, and CYP2C19 genetic information to predict 1-year ischemic outcomes post-PCI to refine clinical decision making. We analyzed 8317 patients from TAILOR-PCI trial (n = 4572) and the Precision PCI registry (n = 3745). The outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and stent thrombosis at 1 year. Boruta feature selection identified 11 predictors. Multiple ML algorithms were trained in TAILOR-PCI and validated in Precision PCI using cross-validation and synthetic minority oversampling (SMOTE). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. The best external performance was achieved with a support vector machine (SVM, polynomial kernel) (AUC 0.667; sensitivity 0.871; specificity 0.282), while XGBoost provided a more balanced profile (AUC 0.619; sensitivity 0.442; specificity 0.688). Variable importance for the SVM polynomial model demonstrated that all 11 included Boruta feature selected predictors had relatively high importance (> 75). ML models trained on large clinical trial and real-world registry datasets can help identify the small subset of patients at high ischemic risk after PCI. This distinction is of relevance because ischemic events are rare, and most patients may safely de-escalate DAPT to reduce bleeding risk while maintaining ischemic protection through a multimodal approach to risk stratification. Trial Registration: TAILOR-PCI URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01742117.