CO and NO2 dynamics in a Brazilian tropical transition zone: the role of land use and road infrastructure

Land-use dynamics and road infrastructure are key anthropogenic drivers of air pollution in tropical landscapes undergoing rapid transformation. This study investigates how land cover and proximity to major roads influence carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations in a transitional region between the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, in Brazil. Sentinel-5P (TROPOMI) satellite data from December 2018 to August 2024 were used to analyze spatial patterns, test statistical differences across land-use/cover (LULC) classes and highway buffer zones, and forecast pollutant trends for 2024–2025 using the Prophet model. Results demonstrate that LULC influences pollutant variability: CO concentrations respond most strongly to biomass-burning episodes, whereas emissions from urban areas and vehicle traffic along transportation corridors primarily influence NO₂. Forecasts predict rising pollutant burdens across all subsets, with CO growth rates ranging from 2.7% y⁻1 in non-vegetated areas to 4.0% y⁻1 in herbaceous and shrubby vegetation (model R2 = 0.90–0.94) and NO₂ growth rates from 0.3% y⁻1 in herbaceous and shrubby vegetation to 1.0% y⁻1 in farming and highway buffer zone (model R2 = 0.91–0.93). The findings contribute to air quality management by linking land-use strategies and transport planning to pollutant behavior, with implications for environmental policy in tropical and subtropical regions.