Hubble Drag Criterion: A Cosmic Constraint on Disk Galaxy Stability from z=0 to z=14.3

Hubble Drag Criterion: A Cosmic Constraint on Disk Galaxy Stability from z=0 to z=14.3 Version 3.0 - Final Submission Version | July 12, 2026 ABSTRACT: We present a falsifiable physical criterion that explains the observed structural evolution of disk galaxies from z=14.3 to z=0 without invoking dark matter. The Hubble Drag force, g_drag(z) = cH(z)/2π, arises from cosmic expansion and sets a redshift-dependent minimum stable disk size. Disks below d_crit(z) = βc²/(4πGΣ) with β=1.6 are torn apart by differential Hubble acceleration. Using JWST data at z=14.3, we test and falsify MOND. MOND predicts 1000× more disks at z>4 than observed, with p=1.8×10⁻⁹. Our model achieves 96.5% success rate across 193/200 galaxies from z=0 to z=14.3. Bayes factor log10(K) = 50.6 strongly favors Hubble Drag over MOND. Key predictions confirmed: 1) No stable disks below d_crit at any z, 2) Milky Way formation at z~2, 3) Local Group merger stability, 4) Derivation of MOND's a0 from cosmology. KEY UPDATES IN v3.0: - Extended redshift range to z=14.3 with JWST Cycle 3 data - Full derivation of β = 1.6 from Toomre Q=1 - Statistical falsification of MOND at 6σ - Derivation of a0 = cH0/2π from Hubble Drag - Appendix: d_crit test for Antennae Galaxies DATA & CODE AVAILABILITY: All data, figures, and analysis code: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21322309 CITATION: Kumar, R. (2026). Hubble Drag Criterion: A Cosmic Constraint on Disk Galaxy Stability from z=0 to z=14.3 [Dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21322309.v3 LICENSE: CC-BY-4.0