How armed conflict shapes food insecurity in the Sahel and Lake Chad Region

Armed conflict is closely associated with food insecurity, but its impact on interregional food movement remains insufficiently understood, especially in data-scarce regions. Here we develop a path-based framework to assess food system exposure to armed conflict in the Sahel and Lake Chad Region. We combine staple food supply and demand data, road networks, and armed conflict event records to simulate potential staple food calorie flows in 2022. A gravity model allocates surplus calories from supply areas to demand areas, and a minimum cost path algorithm identifies transport paths; conflict exposure is then assessed for supply areas, demand areas, and flow paths. The results show potential for internal calorie redistribution under idealized conditions, with 47.9% of staple food calories participating in interregional redistribution. Armed conflict-impact zones directly overlap with 3.9% of the region’s total cropland, but intersect 91.3% of the simulated flow paths. These findings suggest that regional food system vulnerability is shaped by the spatial alignment between transport corridors and conflict exposure. Even where foods are available, conflict often coincides with key routes, most essential flows traverse exposed networks, heightening food insecurity, according to a 2022 Sahel and Lake Chad Region network simulation using gravity models and road data.