Blood pressure variability at midlife is associated with all-cause, coronary heart disease and stroke long term mortality

OBJECTIVE: Elevated blood pressure (BP) is associated with cardiovascular mortality. BP variability (BPV) is also associated with cardiovascular mortality. However, most studies evaluated hypertensive patients with a relatively short follow-up. We investigated in male workers the association between BPV and long-term all-cause and specific-cause mortality. METHODS: Among 10 059 men, aged 40-65, tenured civil servants and municipal employees in Israel, 9398 participants who were examined in 1963, 1965 and 1968 had assessment of diabetic and coronary morbidity status and SBP levels. Participants underwent clinical and biochemical evaluations and BP measured in the recumbent position on the right arm. We conducted analysis for SD-SBP across study visits. Hazard ratios were calculated for 18 years all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality associated with quintile of SD-SBP, with the lowest quintile serving as a reference. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis yielded a significant association between SD-SBP and all-cause, CHD and stroke mortality. Age and SBP-adjusted hazard ratios of all-cause mortality was 1.02 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.90-1.17], 1.06 (95% CI, 0.94-1.20), 1.20 (95% CI, 1.06-1.35) and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.21-1.53) (for quintile 2-5, respectively). The results of CHD and stroke mortality similarly and strongly indicated increasing age-adjusted mortality risk with increasing SD-SBP. Further adjustment for smoking, BMI, diabetes mellitus and coronary heart disease yielded similar results. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of tenured male workers, BPV taken over 5 years was clearly associated with 18-year all-cause, CHD and stroke mortality.