Clinical Implications of Ventricular Repolarization Parameters on Long-Term Risk of Atrial Fibrillation　― Longitudinal Follow-up Data From a General Ambulatory Korean Population ―

BACKGROUND: This study investigated 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) predictors associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) or flutter (AFL), specifically whether ventricular repolarization abnormalities in surface ECG (i.e., non-specific ST-T abnormalities [NSSTTA], QT prolongation, early repolarization [ER]) were associated with the development of AF or AFL. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study included 16,793 ambulatory Koreans (mean age 48.2 years, 62.3% male) who underwent medical check-ups at Asan Medical Center in 2002 (NSSTTA, n=1,037 [6.2%]; ER, n=1,493 [8.9%]). The primary outcome was the incidence of ECG-documented AF or AFL. During follow-up, new-onset AF or AFL was documented in 334 subjects (2.0%). The incidence of AF or AFL at the 10-year follow-up was higher in patients with than without NSSTTA (3.5% vs. 1.6%; hazard ratio [HR] 1.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-2.50). The QT interval was associated with a higher risk of AF or AFL (HR 1.12 [95% CI 1.07-1.17] per 10 ms), and the risk was even higher in patients with multiple-region NSSTTA (HR 2.30; 95% CI 1.64-3.21) and NSSTTA with QT prolongation (HR 4.06; 95% CI 2.14-7.69). ER was not associated with a higher risk of AF or AFL (HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.71-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: NSSTTA and QT prolongation, but not ER, were associated with a higher risk of future AF or AFL in a general ambulatory population after adjusting for parameters of atrial depolarization.