Electrocardiographic parameters and the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in the general population: the Rotterdam Study

AIMS: We aimed to assess the (shape of the) association and sex differences in the link between electrocardiographic parameters and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12 212 participants free of AF at baseline from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Up to five repeated measurements of electrocardiographic parameters including PR, QRS, QT, QT corrected for heart rate (QTc), JT, RR interval, and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Cox proportional hazards- and joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the (shape of the) association between baseline and longitudinal electrocardiographic parameters with new-onset AF. Additionally, we evaluated potential sex differences. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 1282 incident AF cases occurred among 12 212 participants (mean age 64.9 years, 58.2% women). Penalized cubic splines revealed that associations between baseline electrocardiographic measures and risk of new-onset AF were generally U- and N-shaped. Sex differences in terms of the shape of the various associations were most apparent for baseline PR, QT, QTc, RR interval, and heart rate in relation to new-onset AF. Longitudinal measures of higher PR interval [fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.43, 1.02-2.04, P = 0.0393] and higher QTc interval (fully adjusted HR, 95% CI, 5.23, 2.18-12.45, P = 0.0002) were significantly associated with new-onset AF, in particular in men. CONCLUSION: Associations of baseline electrocardiographic measures and risk of new-onset AF were mostly U- and N-shaped. Longitudinal electrocardiographic measures of PR and QTc interval were significantly associated with new-onset AF, in particular among men.