A Numerical Case Study of Secondary Marine Cyclogenesis Sensitivity to Initial Error and Varying Physical Processes

Secondary cyclogenesis has been identified as a difficult forecast challenge. In this paper, the authors examine the dominant physical processes associated with the predictability of a case of explosive secondary marine cyclogenesis and provide a better understanding of the large variability in the recent model-intercomparison simulations of the case. A series of sensitivity experiments, involving changes to the model initial conditions and physical parameterizations, is performed using the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community Model with a grid size of 50 km.