Investigating the Connection Between Transit-Oriented Development and Displacement: Four Hypotheses

Transit-oriented development (TOD) has become a predominant planning model in many cities. However, although access to public transit is often seen as benefiting low-income groups, in some cities community groups have challenged TOD plans on the grounds that they could cause gentrification and displacement. Yet, empirical studies have found little evidence that gentrification actually causes displacement. This article examines the connection between TOD and displacement in urban areas and seeks to make sense of the apparent discrepancy between community opposition to TOD and the empirical findings on displacement. Four explanations are considered: methodological shortcomings in existing studies, insufficient attention to social and psychological forms of displacement, potential transportation cost savings, and use of TOD plans as a policy target. The fourth explanation is illustrated using an example from the San Francisco Bay Area of California. This article aims to synthesize literature on these previously separate topics and to illuminate paths for future research.