A Multi-Criteria Policy Coherence Index for Water–Energy–Food Nexus Governance and Energy Transition Pathways in Sub-Saharan Africa

Ensuring sustainable management of water, energy, and food (WEF) resources requires governance frameworks capable of addressing cross-sectoral interdependencies and policy fragmentation. This study evaluates the performance and coherence of national water, energy, and agricultural policies in Mali, South Africa, Malawi, and Tanzania, with a focus on their contribution to WEF nexus integration and energy transition pathways. A mixed-methods approach is applied, combining qualitative policy analysis, stakeholder consultations (n = 52), and a composite policy coherence index to assess cross-sectoral policy alignment across three river basins: the Bani River Basin (Mali), the Songwe River Basin (Malawi–Tanzania), and the Inkomati–Usuthu Water Management Area (South Africa). The results indicate that key water policy dimensions such as conservation, pollution control, and stakeholder participation demonstrate high performance (mean = 1.0) and strong coherence (SD = 0.0–0.1) across all countries. However, these values primarily reflect the presence of policy instruments rather than their effective implementation. Stakeholder evidence highlights persistent gaps in enforcement, coordination, and institutional capacity. In the energy sector, core infrastructure and participation policies exhibit high performance (mean = 1.0; SD = 0.0), while critical market instruments—including feed-in tariffs (FITs) and power purchase agreements (PPAs)—show moderate performance (mean = 0.6–0.8) and high variability (SD = 0.4–0.5), indicating regulatory inconsistency. In the agricultural sector, economic incentives achieve high performance (mean = 1.0; SD = 0.0), whereas sustainable practices such as agroecology, crop rotation, and organic fertilization remain weakly integrated (mean = 0.1–0.4; SD up to 0.5). Overall, the findings reveal that WEF nexus governance is characterized by strong structural policy alignment (mean = 0.8–1.0) but limited functional integration, reflecting a gap between policy design coherence and implementation effectiveness. Strengthening regulatory frameworks, improving cross-sectoral coordination, and enhancing investment mechanisms are critical for advancing resource efficiency and accelerating energy transition. The study provides a reproducible framework for assessing policy coherence and offers policy-relevant insights for integrated resource governance in Sub-Saharan Africa.