Towards Sustainable Ecotourism in a Proposed Karst National Park, Southwest China: A Social-Ecological Adaptability Assessment and Zoned Management Strategy

This exploratory case study assesses ecotourism adaptability across three zones within the proposed Southwest Karst National Park (Guangxi), where UNESCO-recognised geological heritage intertwines with diverse ethnic cultures. To fill the gap in zone-specific integrated assessment frameworks, we employed a two-stage entropy-weighted TOPSIS method—calibrated via Delphi-AHP adjustments within a Social-Ecological Systems framework—using 2023–2024 data, complemented by ethnographic observations. Preliminary results indicate divergent trajectories: the Tiankeng zone exhibits high geological uniqueness and market appeal (composite score 0.74); the Mulun zone shows relatively balanced social–ecological coupling (0.58); and the Underground River zone displays pronounced asymmetry between vulnerability and development potential (0.16). Accordingly, tentative daily visitor caps of 3000, 8000, and 14 persons, respectively, and a pilot adaptability alert threshold of 0.20 for this specific case are proposed. These findings reveal a “vulnerability–capacity inverse matching” dynamic, informing differentiated governance: high-adaptability zones may allow moderate tourism with real-time monitoring, whereas low-adaptability zones require strict conservation-first measures and phased institutional capacity-building prior to any development. This preliminary framework offers actionable insights for sustainable management, conceptually aligned with SDG 11.4 and SDG 15.9.