法家兴衰:从双重锚点的丧失到适应性回调 ——以政治哲学圆融模型、成功概率动态模型与共同体凝聚度模型为统一解释框架

English Abstract: Legalism was an incomplete system that inherited and radically amplified the materialist-meritocratic dimension of the Zhou Rites after their dissolution. Under the criteria of the Political Philosophy Cohesion Model, Legalism possessed unprecedentedly powerful methodology and political tools, yet its underlying axiom (human nature is driven by self-interest) rendered its value system extremely weak—a deficiency that is non-completable and static. Legalism's success in Qin was essentially a "backdoor listing"—it borrowed the centuries-old political legacy of the "supreme organizer for ensuring communal survival" from the Guanzhong region, transforming it into operational efficiency tools. The rapid collapse of Qin stemmed from the sequential loss of its "dual anchors": after the First Emperor's death, Qin II abandoned the organizer identity, causing the borrowed legitimacy anchor to collapse; tyranny led to misaligned rewards and punishments, rendering Legalism's own "interest-driven" mechanism ineffective. Liu Bang's "Three Chapters of Law" precisely reactivated this legacy, yet merely utilized and consumed it without elevating it into a conscious value system. Over the following centuries, Legalist tools underwent a long adaptive reversion from "full extension" to "retreat to the center"—a classic unfolding of the "reversion pressure" mechanism under conditions of a vast territory with diverse populations. Legalism's ultimate fate was the "Confucian skin and Legalist bones" hybrid—degrading from an independent system to the "bones" of imperial governance, yet the structural contradiction of "ritual" and "warfare" originating from different matrices was never resolved. This paper employs the three core models as a unified explanatory framework to systematically interpret the complete logic of Legalism's rise and fall.