荀儒:被历史错过的圆融之路 ——政治哲学圆融模型视域下的荀子思想重估

English Abstract: Xunzi was the only thinker among pre-Qin Confucians who unified Value, Methodology, and Tool under a single underlying axiom. Taking the theory of "human nature is evil" as his logical starting point, he demonstrated the necessity of external ritual and legal norms, proposed "Honoring Ritual and Emphasizing Law" (longli zhongfa), and integrated Legalist tools under the command of Confucian "ritual and righteousness," constructing a complete and cohesive political-philosophical framework. However, this framework was never adopted as imperial orthodoxy after the 628 CE ritual shift—what was constitutionalized was the incomplete heart-mind ethics of Confucius and Mencius, not Xunzi's integrated ritual-law synthesis. Later emperors inverted Xunzi's framework, transforming "Confucian bones with Legalist use" into "Confucian skin and Legalist bones," permanently hardening the structural contradiction between "ritual" and "warfare" from different philosophical matrices. Using the Political Philosophy Cohesion Model, this paper systematically demonstrates Xun-Confucianism's completeness and structurally compares it with Confucianism, Legalism, and the "Confucian skin and Legalist bones" hybrid. It further asks a deeper question: why was Xun-Confucianism "destined to fail" despite its exceptional completeness? The answer lies in the deep constraints of imperial governance—under an agrarian-scale, ultra-large unified empire, the optimal equilibrium of governance naturally rejects cohesive systems and adapts only to hybrid ones. Xun-Confucianism required "ritual" to govern "warfare," which the empire could not accept. The 628 CE ritual shift permanently locked out Xun-Confucianism's kernel inheritability at the constitutional level. Under the multiplicative structure of the Dynamic Success Probability Model, when kernel inheritability is locked at zero, the probability of success approaches zero regardless of structural completeness or leadership. This paper concludes that Xun-Confucianism was not the intellectual source of the "Confucian skin and Legalist bones" hybrid, but rather an endogenous cohesive path that was constitutionally locked out of Chinese civilization—its historical exclusion was the inevitable result of imperial governance constraints and top-level ideological choices.