What question did this study set out to answer?

To provide an applied, translational workflow for psychological researchers implementing Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) for causal questions in observational and quasi-experimental settings.

August 15, 2026Acta PsychologicaOpen Access

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for psychological research: From causal identification to statistical inference

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To provide an applied, translational workflow for psychological researchers implementing Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) for causal questions in observational and quasi-experimental settings.
Integrated causal parameter mapping, positivity diagnostics, and reproducible Python code within the Causal Roadmap framework.
Conducted simulation experiments evaluating point-treatment average treatment effects under nuisance-model misspecification, limited overlap, and propensity-score truncation.
Demonstrated practical applications across two empirical examples contrasting parametric approaches with cross-fitted Super Learner TMLE.
TMLE integrated outcome and treatment mechanisms via efficient-influence-function updates, providing doubly robust estimation and valid inference under appropriate conditions.
Simulations demonstrated that pairing flexible machine learning with fully nested cross-fitting safeguarded target-parameter estimation against misspecification and overfitting relative to standard regression.

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Implication

Methodological analysis demonstrates targeted maximum likelihood estimation for causal inference in psychological data, highlighting robust estimation through machine learning integration.

Cite This Study

Devansh Pandey (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a801a1a75c2e31742c868dd https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2026.107610

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Implication

Methodological analysis demonstrates targeted maximum likelihood estimation for causal inference in psychological data, highlighting robust estimation through machine learning integration.

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for psychological research: From causal identification to statistical inference

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for psychological research: From causal identification to statistical inference

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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