Environmental Influences on Regression Factors for Estimating 305-Day Production from Part Lactations

Cumulative milk and fat production on test days from 11,420 Michigan DHIA-IBM records from 1953 to 1957 were used to derive regression factors for estimating 305-day production from part lactations.The data included 8,993 Holstein, 1,457 Guernsey, 651 Jersey, and 319 Brown Swiss lactations.Linear regression coefficients of total on part lactation within herd-season-lactationage groups were used to measure the relationship between cumulative production on test day and total production for the first ten test days.Analyses of regression coefficients for the first, third, and seventh cumulative months of the Holstein data indicated season was not an important influence on the part-to-whole relationship.Visual inspection of the mean coefficients for age within lactation numbers failed to reveal where ages and parities should be separated or combined.Intra-herd factors for extending incomplete records were developed from the average regression coefficients of total on part lactations within herds, seasons, lactations, and ages for each of the nine cumulative test days.Each regression coefficient included in the average was weighted by the number of records from which it was computed.For comparison, extension factors disregarding herd, season, lactation number, and age effects also were derived.Although the differences between inter-and intra-herd factors were not tested for significance, the marked similarity between the Holstein factors suggests that herd had little or no influence on the part-to-whole relationship.Correlations between cumulative part and 305-day production ignoring herd differences were not less than 0.7 for the first month, increased steadily as the lactation progressed, and were 0.9 by the fifth test day for all breeds.These findings support data in the literature which suggest that production records of only 1 or 2 too.are valuable guides to what a cow will produce in that lactation.Estimating 305-day production from such records would be useful in early culling and progeny testing.Approximately half of the tested cows in Michigan leaving the milking herd are removed because of low production (11).Many of those removed are young cows with less than a complete 305-day lactation.Excluding their incomplete records from sire proofs may distort the results to make some sires appear better than they would if all progeny records were included.If 305-day production could be estimated from parts of the lactation with reasonable accuracy, partial lactation records could be included in sire proofs.This would help to eliminate selective progeny testing resulting from the removal of low-producing cows before they can complete their first record of production.Estimates from part records also could provide an early evaluation of bulls and their daughters before the daughters have completed their first records.Culling decisions on cows early in their first or second lactation would be possible.