Temporal and Bidirectional Association Between Blood Pressure Variability and Arterial Stiffness: Cross-Lagged Cohort Study (Preprint)

BACKGROUND The causal relationship between blood pressure variability (BPV) and arterial stiffness remains debated. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to explore the temporal and bidirectional associations between long-term BPV and arterial stiffness using a cohort design with multiple surveys. METHODS Participants from the Beijing Health Management Cohort who underwent health examinations from visit 1 (2010-2011) to visit 5 (2018-2019) were enrolled in this study. Long-term BPV was defined as intraindividual variation using the coefficient of variation (CV) and SD. Arterial stiffness was measured by brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). The bidirectional relationship between BPV and arterial stiffness was explored using cross-lagged analysis and linear regression models, with records before and after visit 3 categorized as phase 1 and phase 2, respectively. RESULTS Of the 1506 participants, who were a mean of 56.11 (SD 8.57) years old, 1148 (76.2%) were male. The cross-lagged analysis indicated that the standardized coefficients of BPV at phase 1 directing to the baPWV level at phase 2 were statistically significant but not vice-versa. The adjusted regression coefficients of the CV were 4.708 (95% CI 0.946-8.470) for systolic blood pressure, 3.119 (95% 0.166-6.073) for diastolic pressure, and 2.205 (95% CI 0.300-4.110) for pulse pressure. The coefficients of the SD were 4.208 (95% CI 0.177-8.239) for diastolic pressure and 4.247 (95% CI 0.448-8.046) for pulse pressure. The associations were predominant in the subgroup with hypertension, but we did not observe any significant association of baPWV level with subsequent BPV indices. CONCLUSIONS The findings supported a temporal relationship between long-term BPV and arterial stiffness level, especially among people with hypertension.