Constructing dangerousness: re-examining dynamic risk, knowledge, and power in case formulation

Case formulation is an epistemic practice that generates hypotheses about offence-related behaviour and informs risk management and treatment. We argue that this process both produces and constrains understandings of individuals, while embedding power relations between practitioners and justice-involved persons. Dynamic risk factors (DRFs) are central constructs in the risk assessment, management, and rehabilitation of sexual violence. Although DRFs offer practical benefits, including measurability, standardisation, and predictive utility, they risk reducing complex behaviours to decontextualised variables, privileging expert knowledge while marginalising alternative perspectives. We critically examine the limitations of DRFs, including their weak explanatory coherence, and propose two alternative perspectives for case formulation: (1) a collaborative process of imagining multiple possible futures, shifting focus from prediction to meaning and agency, and (2) an ecological perspective that situates behaviour within layered social, cultural, and political contexts. Both perspectives expand formulation beyond factorial risk models, promoting more equitable and context-sensitive practices.PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENT This paper highlights the need for forensic practitioners to move beyond narrow, factor-based risk models by critically reflecting on how case formulations produce and privilege particular forms of knowledge. It encourages incorporating future-oriented and ecological approaches that recognise the social, cultural, and structural contexts of offending, thereby supporting more equitable, person-centred, and contextually-responsive risk assessment and intervention practices. Policymakers and agencies are urged to balance predictive tools with approaches that promote collaboration, accountability, and diverse knowledge inputs in decision-making.