Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060

The article considers methodological and practical issues of assessing the effects of measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the context of development and implementation of a strategy of Russia’s socio-economic development. The authors substantiate the relevance of investments in decarbonization measures, as well as the associated benefits (demand for the products of fund-creating industries) and costs (price increases and negative consumer reaction). The target scenario of low greenhouse gas emissions socio-economic development of Russia is based on a predictive and analytical toolkit based on the input/output method and on the database of the National Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions. The target scenario combines an active economic policy with ambitious actions towards reducing net emissions: within the scenario, the average annual growth rate of Russia’s GDP is 2.6% and carbon neutrality is achieved by 2060. A more aggressive scenario of ensuring carbon neutrality by 2050 is characterized by significantly worse indicators of economic efficiency.