Adjoint Estimation of the Variation in Model Functional Output due to the Assimilation of Data

A parametric approach to the adjoint estimation of the variation in model functional output due to the assimilation of data is considered as a tool to analyze and develop observation impact measures. The parametric approach is specialized to a linear analysis scheme and it is used to derive various high-order approximation equations. This framework includes the Kalman filter and incremental three-and four-dimensional variational data assimilation schemes implementing a single outer loop iteration. Distinction is made between Taylor series methods and numerical quadrature methods. The novel quadrature approximations require minimal additional software development and are suitable for testing and implementation at operational numerical weather prediction centers where a data assimilation system (DAS) and the associated adjoint DAS are in place. Their potential use as tools for observation impact estimates needs to be further investigated. Preliminary numerical experiments are provided using the fifth-generation NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric DAS.