Predictive value of cardio-ankle vascular index for the risk of end-stage renal disease

Background Arterial stiffness is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, the predictive value of the cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI), one of the indicators for arterial stiffness, for the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) remains unknown. Methods A total of 8701 patients with documented CAVI measurements by pulse wave velocity (PWV) were included in the study. Patients were divided according to the quartiles of CAVI. The hazard ratio (HR) of ESRD was calculated using the Cox model, after adjustment for multiple variables or death. Results During the median follow-up period of 7 years (maximum 12 years), ESRD and mortality occurred in 203 and 1071 patients, respectively. The median value of CAVI was 8.5 (interquartile range 7.7–9.3). The risk of ESRD was higher in the fourth-quartile group than the first-quartile group [adjusted HR 2.46 (IQR 1.62–3.71), P < 0.001]. When a death-adjusted risk analysis was performed, the fourth quartile of CAVI had a higher risk of ESRD than the first quartile [adjusted HR 2.35 (IQR 1.58–3.49), P < 0.001]. Conclusions The measurement of CAVI by PWV may be needed to predict the risk of ESRD.