One-year change in resting heart rate and subsequent risk of hypertension in healthy Chinese adults

BACKGROUND: Changes in baseline resting heart rate (RHR) appear to predict new-onset hypertension (NOH). However, RHR is a dynamic anthropometric parameter; thus, the association between changes in RHR and NOH requires further investigation. METHODS: We studied 10 403 participants who were initially normotensive and who had at least one routine health examination at baseline and 1 year later during 2011-2016. We compared the RHR between the baseline and 1-year follow-up. We defined hypertension as SBP ≥140 mmHg or DBP ≥90 mmHg. Participants were divided into three groups: RHR decreased, RHR unchanged [from 0 to 10 beats per minute (bpm)], and RHR increased ≥10 bpm. Cox regression analysis was performed to calculate relative risk with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between NOH and RHR change. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 2.42 years, 1173 (11.28%) participants developed hypertension. After adjusting for age, sex, SBP, DBP, RHR and other confounders obtained at baseline, and compared with participants with unchanged RHR, participants with decreased RHR had a 17% decreased risk of NOH (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.95), whereas subjects with RHR that increased ≥10 bpm had a 23% increased risk of NOH (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.46). CONCLUSION: A 1-year increase in RHR for initially normotensive subjects is an independent risk factor for subsequent hypertension.