Distributionally Robust Optimization for Integrated Energy System with Tiered Carbon Trading: Synergizing CCUS with Hydrogen Blending Combustion

In this study, an Integrated Energy System (IES) with hydrogen refinement within a tiered carbon trading mechanism (TCTM) is presented to improve energy efficiency and support decarbonization. To address uncertainties in the IES, a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach, employing a fuzzy set framework with Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to construct error distributions and specify output ranges for renewable energy (RE), is proposed. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and K-means clustering are, respectively, applied to generate original and representative scenarios. Subsequently, case studies are performed to evaluate advantages of the presented model. The results indicate that hydrogen refinement within the TCTM framework has substantial benefits for the IES. Specifically, the proposed scenario integrates hydrogen blending combustion (HBC) with synthetic methane, demonstrating significant economic and carbon benefits, with cost reductions of 7.3%, 7.1%, and 4.3% and carbon emission reductions of 6%, 3%, and 2.4% compared to scenarios with no hydrogen utilization, HBC only, and synthetic methane only, respectively. In contrast, to exclude carbon trading and include fixed-price trading, the TCTM achieves a 3.5% and 1.1% reduction in carbon emissions, respectively. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is performed, examining factors such as the ratio of hydrogen blending, price, and growth rate of carbon trading.