Backtest analysis demonstrates an increased win rate in algorithmic currency trading, suggesting quarterly market phase filtering enhances strategy performance.
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 43.7% (+12.2pp, n=119) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ACCUMULATION phase filter to the current live trade window would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT via rizzy (entry 1.13704, closed LOSS) and the USDCAD LONG via rizzy7m (entry 1.40711, closed WIN), removing one loss and one win. The GBPUSD LONG via wkjudas (entry 1.32842, still open) and EURUSD SHORT via rizzy5m (entry 1.13594, closed) would survive if they fell in ACCUMULATION, but the filter's effect on the remaining open/rejected trades is indeterminate without phase data. Net PnL delta is roughly neutral in this small sample, as the removed win offsets the removed loss, but the win rate would shift from 3/5 (60%) to 2/3 (66.7%) — a minor improvement consistent with the backtested +12.2pp gain. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the filter should lift win rate from ~31.5% to Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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