Key result
Reduced population salt intake in Japan since the 1950s averted an estimated 298,000 excess cardiovascular deaths in men and 118,000 in women compared to a scenario of no reduction.
Why the study?
In Japan, cardiovascular mortality decline coincided with reduced population salt intake since the 1950s, but the effect of this reduction on long-term mortality trends remained to be quantified.
Does reduced population salt intake reduce cardiovascular mortality in the Japanese population aged 20-69 years?
Does reduced population salt intake reduce cardiovascular mortality in the Japanese population aged 20-69 years?
The decline in salt intake in Japan since the 1950s has contributed to a substantial reduction in cardiovascular mortality, preventing approximately 416,000 excess deaths.
Supports salt reduction's link to lower CV mortality in Japan; leaves open need for prospective trials before policy changes.
In Japan, a decrease in cardiovascular mortality has coincided with reduced population salt intake since the 1950s. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effect of reduced population salt intake on the long-term trends of cardiovascular mortality. Using government statistics and epidemiological study results in people of 20-69 years old from 1950 to 2017, including the National Health and Nutrition Survey, we developed a system dynamics model of age-specific cardiovascular mortality and salt intake. We estimated the period and cohort effects on mortality and calibrated the model for the historical mortality rate. We then simulated the counterfactual scenario of no decrease in salt intake to estimate the reduction in cardiovascular deaths associated with decreased mean salt intake. Compared with the base run and calibrated to the actual data, approximately 298,000 and 118,000 excess deaths were observed in men and women, respectively, assuming no change in salt intake over the entire period. The model suggests that the decline in salt intake since the 1950s has contributed to a non-negligible reduction in cardiovascular mortality.
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Sugiyama et al. (2022) studied Cardiovascular mortality. Reduced population salt intake vs. No decrease in salt intake was evaluated on Cardiovascular mortality. Reduced population salt intake in Japan since the 1950s averted an estimated 298,000 excess cardiovascular deaths in men and 118,000 in women compared to a scenario of no reduction.
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