Impact of Salt Reduction on Medical Expenditure for Hypertension in Japan: National and Subnational Simulation Models

Figures

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  Figure 1. Structure of the salt intake sub-model. Rectangles represent stocks. Pipes with double arrows indicate flows that change stock values. Valves located at the center of the pipes regulate flow rates. Blue arrows represent causal links between elements. Gray arrows represent links for stocks that receive their initial values. Gray texts denote shadow variables that appear elsewhere in the model.

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  Figure 2. Structure of the population sub-model for men. Rectangles represent stocks. Clouds represent stocks outside the boundary of the system. Pipes with double arrows indicate flows that change stock values. Valves located at the center of the pipes regulate flow rates. Blue arrows represent causal links between elements. Gray texts denote shadow variables that appear elsewhere in the model.

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  Figure 3. Simulated changes of 0th, 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th, and 100th percentile bounds in Monte Carlo multivariate sensitivity analyses based on a sample of 200 simulations with parameter values varied between 80% and 120% in the salt intake sub-model. Results are shown for daily salt intake (a) using the initial low-salt foods, the initial low salt people, the change rate of salt content, and the change rate of salt intake (the first set of parameters), and for daily salt intake (b), the number of PwH (c), and treatment cost (d) using the high-salt food level, the low-salt food level, the initial low-salt foods, the initial low salt people, the change rate of salt content, and the change rate of salt intake (the second set of parameters). PwH, people with hypertension.

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  Figure 4. Daily salt intake in the NHNS (2012–2019, 2022, and 2023) and simulated changes in daily salt content and daily salt intake in the salt intake sub-model from 2012 to 2040 in the base run. NHNS, National Health and Nutrition Survey.

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  Figure 5. Simulated changes in the number of PwH by age group from 2012 to 2040 in the base run for men (a) and women (b). PwH, people with hypertension.