Pathways to STEM aspirations: a multidimensional structural model of 9th-grade students

Background Adolescents’ aspirations in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) emerge from the interplay of contextual resources, learning experiences, and motivational beliefs. While prior research has examined these factors separately, few studies have explored how they function together as an integrated developmental system. Gender disparities in STEM participation further underscore the need for context-sensitive models, particularly in East Asian settings shaped by sociocultural norms and examination pressures.Purpose Grounded in social cognitive career theory (SCCT), expectancy–value theory, and interest development theory, this study explored (1) how STEM capital relates to students’ learning experiences and motivational beliefs; (2) how self-efficacy, attitudes, interest, self-concept, and outcome expectations predict STEM aspirations; and (3) whether gender moderates key pathways within this system.Sample and methods The participants were 821 ninth-grade students (51.4% male; 48.6% female) from eight junior high schools in southern Taiwan. Using a cross-sectional survey design, the data were analyzed with partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), bootstrapped mediation analyses, and moderation testing via Hayes’ PROCESS macro (Model 1).Results STEM learning experiences emerged as a central mediator linking STEM capital to motivational beliefs and aspirations. Interestingly, outcome expectations and self-concept were the strongest proximal predictors of aspirations. Although STEM capital had no direct effect, it exerted significant indirect effects through experiential and motivational pathways. An exploratory analysis further revealed a negative indirect effect of self-efficacy on outcome expectations via attitudes, suggesting a potential overconfidence mechanism. Gender moderated selected pathways, with stronger capital-to-experience and capital-to-self-efficacy associations observed for boys.Conclusion These findings extend SCCT by demonstrating how contextual, experiential, and psychological factors jointly shape STEM aspirations and highlight the importance of experience-rich and gender-responsive STEM learning environments.