What does this research mean for the field?

Dengue transmission exhibits spatial dependence up to 5 kilometers, resulting in localized serotype-specific immunity, with the number of distinct co-circulating transmission chains scaling proportionally with host population size. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To determine the spatial dependence of dengue virus transmission, quantify co-circulating transmission chains, and assess whether local community transmission generates serotype-specific herd immunity over time.

September 2, 2026PLoS neglected tropical diseasesOpen Access

The spatial structure of dengue transmission in Kamphaeng Phet Thailand

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Authors

SOSarah H. Ooi AHAngkana T. Huang SKSurachai Kaewhiran

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Overview

Spatial analysis reveals localized transmission chains and serotype-specific immunity within five kilometers, indicating fine-scale spatial drivers of viral dynamics.

Key Points

To determine the spatial dependence of dengue virus transmission, quantify co-circulating transmission chains, and assess whether local community transmission generates serotype-specific herd immunity over time.
Analyzed 25 years of geolocated clinical case records (N = 7,487) from a provincial hospital in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, paired with genomic sequences for a subset of viral isolates (N = 302).
Calculated spatial dependence between paired cases across various spatiotemporal intervals using serotype and sequence data.
Applied logistic regression models to evaluate associations between viral diversity, host population size, and epidemic magnitude.
Significant spatial clustering occurred between cases at distances up to 5 km, driving localized, serotype-specific herd immunity patterns in following years.
An average of 9.6 distinct transmission chains co-circulated within a 78.5 km² area, with each 100,000-person increase in population associated with 9.8 additional chains.
Monthly viral diversity correlated positively with epidemic magnitude but exhibited only moderate predictive power for forecasting overall epidemic dynamics.

Cite This Study

Ooi et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a97e2f6c562ede874ec776f https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0014605

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September 2, 2026PLoS neglected tropical diseasesOpen Access

The spatial structure of dengue transmission in Kamphaeng Phet Thailand

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

SOSarah H. Ooi AHAngkana T. Huang SKSurachai Kaewhiran

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Spatial analysis reveals localized transmission chains and serotype-specific immunity within five kilometers, indicating fine-scale spatial drivers of viral dynamics.

Key Points

To determine the spatial dependence of dengue virus transmission, quantify co-circulating transmission chains, and assess whether local community transmission generates serotype-specific herd immunity over time.
Analyzed 25 years of geolocated clinical case records (N = 7,487) from a provincial hospital in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, paired with genomic sequences for a subset of viral isolates (N = 302).
Calculated spatial dependence between paired cases across various spatiotemporal intervals using serotype and sequence data.
Applied logistic regression models to evaluate associations between viral diversity, host population size, and epidemic magnitude.
Significant spatial clustering occurred between cases at distances up to 5 km, driving localized, serotype-specific herd immunity patterns in following years.
An average of 9.6 distinct transmission chains co-circulated within a 78.5 km² area, with each 100,000-person increase in population associated with 9.8 additional chains.
Monthly viral diversity correlated positively with epidemic magnitude but exhibited only moderate predictive power for forecasting overall epidemic dynamics.

Cite This Study

Ooi et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a97e2f6c562ede874ec776f https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0014605

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