Military innovation and procurement trade-offs: explaining Japan’s drone adoption

Why do some states develop indigenous drones while others rely on foreign suppliers? Japan presents a useful case for addressing this question. Although Japan initially pursued indigenous drone development, it subsequently shifted toward the procurement of foreign-made systems. This article argues that this shift resulted from three factors: weak service patronage for indigenous drone programmes, the availability of reliable foreign sources of supply, and a rapidly deteriorating security environment, which together led the Japan Self-Defense Forces to prioritise procurement efficiency and rapid capability acquisition over domestic development. The findings suggest that, for middle powers with reliable access to foreign defence technologies, secure external supply can create a self-reinforcing dynamic that could discourage indigenous innovation.