High-tech export cycles: a quantitative study of the French economic performance

This article is part of a broader study evaluating the quantitative impact of a country’s scientific and technological development on its economic growth. It constitutes the first stage of the research, focusing on the analysis of high-tech production and export dynamics across different countries. The primary goal is to identify and adapt the positive experiences of these countries while considering the negative trends to support Ukraine's post-war economic recovery. The study aims to apply the author's approach to analyzing the dynamics of high-tech exports in France. As a tool for government regulation in the sphere of innovation and scientific-technical development, the authors propose a novel methodology for examining the structural dynamics of high-tech exports. This methodology elucidates the economic essence of high-tech export dynamics and identifies three key components: steady growth, accelerated growth, and cyclical growth. Additionally, it enables the evaluation of how the influence of the cyclical component shifts when high-tech exports are analyzed as a proportion of total industrial exports or GDP and compares these findings with the structure of France's overall GDP dynamics. Findings: The study demonstrates that France’s high-tech export dynamics exhibits a cyclical pattern of development. The following indicators were analyzed: the export of high-tech products, its share in manufacturing exports and the country's gross domestic product, the total volume of manufacturing exports, and GDP. Economic cycles with durations of 4.4 and 4.6 years were identified, and the degree of influence of the cyclical component of the overall trend was calculated. The overall weighted influence of the cyclical component of high-tech export dynamics was found to be substantial. Future Research Directions: The results of this study provide a foundation for developing effective government policies to facilitate Ukraine's economic recovery in the post-war period. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for cyclical components in the strategic planning of high-tech sector development.