Secular stagnation in East Asia: Structural, cyclical, or political?

This paper studies the applicability of the concept of “secular stagnation” to four Northeast Asian economies, specifically China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. It revisits growth outcome in those countries since the 1980s and discusses future growth prospects. A bibliometric analysis demonstrates that secular stagnation and related concepts of “lost decade”, “growth trap” or “growth slowdown” have risen in academic studies focusing on East Asia. While some deceleration in growth is expected as economies approach the technological frontier and move beyond catch-up growth, recent performance has been weaker than earlier expectations. On the supply side, rapid population aging, slower labor force expansion, and the flattening of educational attainment have contributed to declining growth potential. On the demand side, rising inequality and cross-country spillovers have further dampened growth prospects. Nevertheless, the diversity of country experiences and policy responses within East Asia suggests that prolonged stagnation is not inevitable.