What question did this study set out to answer?

To characterize how temperature influences the extrinsic incubation period of West Nile Virus in mosquitoes by incorporating individual variation into time delay models.

September 27, 2024Journal of InfectionOpen Access

Modelling the temperature dependent extrinsic incubation period of West Nile Virus using Bayesian time delay models

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Authors

MVMaisie VollansUK Health Security Agency JDJulie DayUK Health Security Agency SCSusie CantUniversity of Warwick

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Implication

Bayesian modeling demonstrates log-linear acceleration of West Nile virus incubation with warmer temperatures in Culex mosquitoes, indicating heightened transmission risks during heat waves.

Key Points

To characterize how temperature influences the extrinsic incubation period of West Nile Virus in mosquitoes by incorporating individual variation into time delay models.
Re-analyzed published experimental data tracking disseminated West Nile Virus infections over time across varying temperature regimens (15°C to 32°C) in cohorts of Culex pipiens mosquitoes.
Fitted Bayesian time delay models comparing multiple probability distributions to estimate temperature-dependent incubation dynamics and strain differences between WN02 and NY99.
Extrinsic incubation periods followed a Weibull distribution, with 5-day dissemination rates rising from <1% under 18°C to 9.73% (95% CrI: 7.97 to 11.54) at 25°C and 42.20% (95% CrI: 38.32 to 46.60) at 30°C.
Median incubation time (EIP 50) decreased from >100 days at 15°C to 3.78 days (95% CrI: 3.42 to 4.15) at 32°C, accompanied by significantly greater variance at lower temperatures.
The WN02 viral strain exhibited faster mosquito dissemination at colder temperatures compared to the displacement-lineage NY99 strain.

Cite This Study

Vollans et al. (2024) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fc1224e3da7c164efd371 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106296

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Implication

Bayesian modeling demonstrates log-linear acceleration of West Nile virus incubation with warmer temperatures in Culex mosquitoes, indicating heightened transmission risks during heat waves.

Modelling the temperature dependent extrinsic incubation period of West Nile Virus using Bayesian time delay models

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Modelling the temperature dependent extrinsic incubation period of West Nile Virus using Bayesian time delay models

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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