Construction-Land Expansion and Economic Intensification Shape Land-Use Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin Provinces

Land-use change affects regional carbon accounting through ecological conversion and the concentration of energy-intensive economic activity. We combined 30 m China Land Cover Dataset maps for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 with provincial socioeconomic and energy statistics to quantify land-use transitions and carbon emissions across nine Yellow River Basin provinces. Construction-land-associated emissions were decomposed using the logarithmic mean Divisia index, factors associated with land expansion were examined using random-forest models, and three 2030 scenarios were evaluated. Construction land expanded by 38.87% from 2010 to 2025, with 71.33% of new construction land converted from cropland and 17.75% from grassland. Net land-use carbon emissions increased by 69.82%, from 1139.06 to 1934.33 million t C. Economic-output density contributed 1144.84 million t C to the increase in construction-land-associated emissions, compared with 576.11 million t C from land expansion, whereas declining energy intensity offset 922.72 million t C. Projected 2030 emissions ranged from 2124.72 million t C under ecological protection to 2866.55 million t C under urban expansion. Construction-land expansion was substantial, but economic-output density made the larger positive contribution to historical emission growth. The projected 2030 estimates depended on the combined trajectories of construction-land demand, economic growth, and energy intensity. These findings highlight the importance of coordinating land-use planning, economic development, and energy-efficiency improvement for sustainable low-carbon transitions.