Risk factors in surgically treated mitral valve disease

Risk factors for operative mortality and long term survival were identified in 144 patients undergoing mitral valve replacement (MVR). The 3-year survival was 77% at a median follow-up time of 3.01 years, including an early mortality of 7.6%. Nineteen preoperative and perioperative variables were analysed by univariate and multivariate methods. The sole risk factor independently predictive of postoperative death was a poor functional class with a relative risk (RR) of 3.17 compared to patients with a better functional class. Independent risk factors of long term survival were; prior heart operation, presence of mitral regurgitation, age at operation and poor functional class. Estimation of the parameters of the Cox's model gave a predicted 3-year survival ranging from 95% to 11% for the most favourable and the less favourable risk factor combinations. Risk factors that affected late death were the presence of ischemic coronary etiology and poor functional class. Two modes of late death were identified each with its prognostic factor. The most common mode was cardiac-related death, its sole risk factor was the presence of ischemic coronary etiology. The RR ratio was 3.2 for patients with ischemic coronary etiology, compared to patients with other etiologies. Sudden cardiac death was the next, its independent risk factor was the age at operation with increasing hazard for younger patients. The RR ratio was 8.55 for a 35-year-old patient compared to a 60-year-old patient.