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January 1, 2022

Main food intake prediction of Chinese residents based on grey model.

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Key result

Predicted fruit intake increases up to ~89% by 2030 while grain and vegetable consumption declines.

Why the study?

To predict the main food intake trends among China's urban and rural residents from 2022 to 2030.

Population

Urban and rural residents aged 20 years or older across seven CHNS survey rounds

Design

Grey model prediction study based on stratified multistage clustered random surveys

Authors

XLXiaodi LuYFYuehui FangYLYiyao Lian

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

Projected dietary shifts may influence cardiometabolic risk; leaves open the net cardiovascular impact and need for targeted studies.

Key Points

  • To forecast consumption trends for major food categories among urban and rural residents from 2022 to 2030.
  • Analyzed dietary intake from seven survey rounds of the stratified, multistage, cluster-sampled China Health and Nutrition Survey using 3 consecutive days of 24-hour dietary recalls (sample sizes: 9,794 to 15,446 adults aged ≥20 years).
  • Applied the Grey model to forecast average daily intake trajectories of plant and animal foods across urban and rural populations through 2030.
  • Prediction mean absolute percentage errors ranged from 1.6% to 38.4% across food categories.
  • By 2030 relative to 2018, urban fruit, poultry, and aquatic intake will increase by 60.7%, 29.4%, and 6.6%, while grain, vegetable, livestock, and egg intake will decrease by 36.9%, 19.4%, 8.7%, and 12.4%, respectively.
  • Rural fruit, livestock, poultry, and egg intake will increase by 88.9%, 31.8%, 71.9%, and 9.2%, respectively, whereas grain, vegetable, and aquatic intake will drop by 32.5%, 24.8%, and 2.2%; poultry will meet dietary guidelines, but livestock will far exceed recommendations while vegetables and grains remain below targets.

Study Design

Type

Observational

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

P
Population
Chinese urban and rural residents aged 20 years or older from seven rounds of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, analyzed to predict food intake trends to 2030.
O
Outcome
Predicted main food intake trends from 2022 to 2030

Predictive modeling suggests that by 2030, Chinese residents' diets will shift, with livestock intake remaining above recommendations while grains, vegetables, and fruits remain below, highlighting the need for dietary guidance.

Limitations

  • The model accuracy is different when applied to different kinds of food.
  • Model accuracy is different when applied to different kinds of food

Cite This Study

Lu et al. (2022) conducted an observational in Dietary intake. Time (2030 projection) vs. 2018 baseline was evaluated on Average daily food intake. By 2030, predicted fruit intake will increase by 60.7% in urban and 88.9% in rural areas compared to 2018, while grain and vegetable intake will decrease.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aaa49a814a1372ffb136b95https://doi.org/10.19813/j.cnki.weishengyanjiu.2022.01.001
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1[Secular trends in main food intakes among Chinese adult residents from 1982 to 2015].2025 · 3 citations
  2. 2Changes in food consumption and nutrition intake of rural residents in central China2024 · 18 citations
  3. 3The geographic patterns of macro- and micronutrient consumption in China: a comparison between urban and rural populations2026
  4. 4Ten‐year dietary trends and urban–rural disparities in fruit, vegetable, meat, egg, and milk products consumption among older Chinese adults2025 · 1 citations
  5. 5Consumption of aquatic products and meats in Chinese residents: A nationwide survey2022 · 29 citations