Rising Mortality in Young U.S. Adults From Noncommunicable Diseases: A 25‐Year CDC Wonder Study

Background Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), once primarily considered a concern of older adults, have shown shifting mortality patterns in recent decades. This study assesses national trends in NCD‐specific mortality among U.S. adults aged ≥ 25 years between 1999 and 2023, with particular attention to divergent trends observed between younger adults (25–44 years) and older age groups (≥ 45 years). Methods This observational analysis employed de‐identified CDC WONDER database mortality data, examining death certificates with ICD‐10‐coded classifications for large NCD categories. Age‐adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and annual percent changes (APCs) were estimated by demographics such as gender, race/ethnicity, region, urbanization, and age group. Joinpoint regression was used to determine statistically significant temporal trends, and results were standardized to the 2000 U.S. population. Results A total of 58,554,916 NCD‐related deaths were reported in 1999–2023. AAMRs decreased from 1197.02 in 1999 to 1002.4 in 2023, with a general AAPC of −0.80%. Age‐specific analyses revealed divergent patterns. Adults aged 25–34 years demonstrated a sustained increase in mortality (AAPC: +2.21% [95% CI, 1.50%–2.93%]). Adults aged 35–44 years also experienced an overall increase (AAPC: +0.68% [95% CI, −0.26%–1.64%]), whereas mortality declined across all age groups ≥ 45 years over the study period. Conclusion While total NCD mortality declined among adults aged ≥ 45 years, a concerning rise was observed among adults aged 25–44 years. These divergent age‐specific trends highlight the need for targeted public health strategies addressing early adulthood risk accumulation and healthcare access.