Incidence and Risk Factors of Future Need for Long-Term Care Insurance in Japanese Elderly Patients With Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction

BACKGROUND: Heart failure in elderly people causes physical and cognitive dysfunction and often requires long-term care insurance (LTCI); however, among patients with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction, the incidence and risk factors of future LTCI requirements need to be elucidated. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 1,852 patients aged ≥65 years with an echocardiographic LV ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤50%; we referred to their LTCI data and those of 113,038 community-dwelling elderly people. During a mean 1.7-year period, 332 patients newly required LTCI (incidence 10.7 per 100 person-years); the incidence was significantly higher than that for the community-dwelling people (hazard ratio [HR], 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-1.64). On multivariate analysis, the risk factors at the time of echocardiography leading to future LTCI requirement were atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.588; 95% CI, 1.279-1.971), history of stroke (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.583-2.576), osteoporosis (HR, 1.738; 95% CI, 1.253-2.41), dementia (HR, 2.804; 95% CI, 2.075-3.789), hypnotics (HR, 1.461; 95% CI, 1.148-1.859), and diuretics (HR, 1.417; 95% CI, 1.132-1.773); however, the LVEF was not a risk factor (HR, 0.997; 95% CI, 0.983-1.011). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients with LV systolic dysfunction, the incidence of LTCI requirement was more common than that for community-dwelling people; its risk factors did not include LVEF, but included many other non-cardiac comorbidities and therapies, suggesting the need for interdisciplinary cooperation to prevent disabilities.