The Impact of Nutrient Loading Restrictions on Dairy Farm Profitability

A linear programming model was uti-l~zed to ~eterrnine the economically optimal darry herd intensities, manure application rates, and crop mix for unrestricted and restricted scenarios of N loss on New York dairy farms.Two representative farms were developed for dairies with 60 or 250 cows that utilized manure handling systems: no storage and daily spreading versus 6 mo of storage and biannual spreading, respectively.Both farms were substantially affected by the imposition of restrictions on N loss, although profitability decreases were relatively smaller on the larger farm, partially because of better conservation and more efficient utilization of manure nutrients.Optimal cow numbers per hectare decreased by nearly 35% on the smaller farm as restrictions on N loss intensified.When initial hectares were retained, rates of return to equity capital decreased >150 and 100% on the farms with 60 and 250 cows, respectively, compared with 47 and 42% when hectare adjustments were optimal.Whether dairy farmers are able to make hectare adjustments under restrictions on N loss may well determine future sustainability and survival of the farming operations.If additional hectares are not available or feasible to acquire, herd reductions may be necessary to meet restrictions on N loss, dropping profitability even further.