How Do Indian Farmers Adjust after Cyclones? Evidence from 1959–2014

Cyclones are among the most devastating natural disasters, especially for farmers in developing countries. This paper examines how Indian farmers adjust agricultural production in response to these large, uninsured shocks during a period of transformation spanning nearly six decades, from 1959–2014. The results show that farmers initially offset output losses by expanding agricultural production along the extensive margin, primarily by bringing barren land into cultivation—a response observed mainly among farmers exposed to cyclones for the first time. For all other farmers, the impacts are adverse and intensify over time. Other adaptation strategies, such as shifting the crop mix toward high-value crops or expanding irrigation systems after disasters, are not sufficient to offset the negative impacts of cyclones, which persist in both the medium and long term. Disaster recovery efforts should therefore go beyond short-term support measures and be followed by medium-term development programs that focus on rebuilding sustainable livelihoods.