Usefulness of preoperative NT-proBNP for prediction of acute heart failure, perioperative myocardial infarction/injury and mortality after non-cardiac surgery

Background Predicting cardiac complications after non-cardiac surgery is challenging. Purpose to determine the predictive accuracy of N-Terminal Pro–B-Type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) and, to assess the utility of existing NT-proBNP cutoffs of the 2021 ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis of acute and chronic heart failure for prediction of postoperative acute heart failure (pAHF), perioperative myocardial infarction/injury (PMI) and mortality following non-cardiac surgery. Methods we prospectively determined preoperative NT-proBNP concentrations in consecutive patients at high cardiac risk undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery. Uni- and multivariable regression models were constructed to test the association between NT-proBNP concentrations and the outcomes (pAHF, PMI, 30-day and one-year mortality), using NT-proBNP as a continuous variable. We further stratified NT-proBNP into 5 categories according to guidelines (<125 pg/ml, 125 to 299pg/ml, 300 to 900 pg/ml, 901 to 1800pg/ml and >1800 pg/ml). Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to determine the predictive value of NT-proBNP. Results Among the 2,334 cases included, pAHF occurred in 83 (3.6%), PMI in 381 (17%), 45 (2.5%) patients died within 30 days and 179 (10%) within one year. After adjusting for confounders, NT-proBNP concentrations were independent predictors of pAHF (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8 [95%CI, 1.5-2.1], p<0.001), PMI (aHR 1.3 [95%CI, 1.2-1.4],p<0.001) and 30 day/one year mortality (aHR 1.6[95%CI, 1.3-2.0], p<0.001)/aHR 1.5 [95%CI 1.4-1.7], p<0.001). By quintiles, higher the NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with adverse outcome (Figure). Accuracy of preoperative NT-proBNP for prediction of pAHF was excellent (area under the curve [AUC] 0.825) and better than accuracy of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index score (AUC 0.692, p<0.001), whereas accuracy of NT-proBNP for prediction of PMI (AUC 0.654) and mortality (AUC 0.787) was only moderate. Conclusion NT-proBNP concentrations are independent predictors of pAHF, PMI and short and long-term mortality following non-cardiac surgery. Stratifying NT-proBNP concentrations using current recommended cut-offs could help to further determine the magnitude of the risk, mainly of pAHF.