European energy security in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine war: a systemic analysis of short-term shocks and long-term transitions

Russia – Ukraine war has fundamentally redefined European energy security, exposing structural vulnerabilities while accelerating systemic transformation. Before 2022, the European Union sourced over 40% of its gas from Russia, a dependency that collapsed following supply disruptions and the sabotage of Nord Stream. Drawing on Eurostat, ACER, and ENTSOG data, this study traces short-term impacts (2022–2024), including supply shocks, unprecedented price volatility, and emergency interventions that prevented systemic collapse but deepened fiscal burdens and energy poverty. A scenario-based analysis (2025–2040) then explores three trajectories: Baseline (gradual recovery), Escalation (persistent conflict and constrained supply), and Green Leap (accelerated clean energy transition). Results show that only the Green Leap pathway achieves near-zero import dependency, stabilized energy costs, and emissions consistent with EU climate neutrality, whereas Baseline risks underperformance and Escalation imposes unsustainable costs. The findings highlight the paradox of crisis: short-term measures often conflicted with decarbonization, yet they catalyzed policy acceleration.