A Model for Predicting the Future Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease Within Percentiles of Coronary Heart Disease Risk
Key result
Top 10% risk tier accounts for ~25% of coronary heart disease deaths in predictive model.
Why the study?
A simple tool for lifetime prediction of absolute primary CHD risk within subgroups of an adult population was needed to identify where primary prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective.
Population
Australian adult population
Comparison
CHD risk percentiles within the population
Design
Modelling study using prevalence, risk estimates, and mortality rates
Authors
Discussion
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Member takes
Implication
May aid targeting primary CHD prevention by risk percentile; leaves open prospective validation of the CHD Prevention Model.
Structured PICO
P
Population
Australian adult population
E
Exposure
The CHD Prevention Model (a method for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease within various CHD risk percentiles)
O
Outcome
Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk stratahard clinical
The CHD Prevention Model provides a tool for lifetime risk prediction to identify subgroups where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective.
Cite This Study
McNeil et al. (2001) studied Coronary Heart Disease. Integrated CHD risk percentiles was evaluated on Incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction and CHD deaths. The CHD Prevention Model predicted that approximately 25% of coronary heart disease deaths occur among individuals in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age or gender.