Climate Resilience and the Hydro-Vegetal Paradox in El Bayadh Province (Algeria, 1984-2023)

The decade 2010 to 2020 was the warmest ever recorded in the Mediterranean basin (+1.5°C), exceeding the global average. North Africa, identified as a vulnerability hotspot by the IPCC AR6, experiences intensified droughts and ecosystem degradation. This study presents the first quantitative assessment of climate resilience in El Bayadh Province (Algeria), revealing an unexpected hydro-vegetal paradox. A comparative multi-index methodology (restricted climate index vs. global index integrating 7 variables) was applied to 22 municipalities over the period of 1984 to 2023. The results showed a universal degradation of water balance (-8.2 to -21.4 mm yr-1) and widespread warming (+0.8 to +2.1°C decade-1). Paradoxically, 73 to 77% of municipalities showed improvement in vegetation indices (NDVI, SAVI), suggesting ecological adaptation. Principal component analysis (PCA-99%) variance explained) identified water stress as the main differentiating factor, and clustering distinguishes 5 territorial profiles (silhouette = 0.521). The global index proves more discriminant than the restricted index for capturing the complexity of socio-ecological dynamics. This study highlights the need for differentiated adaptation policies addressing challenges related to water, food security, and migration.