Towards safer rural mobility: A systemic safety analysis of pedestrian crash severity in Ghana

Pedestrian safety remains a critical concern in Ghana, particularly in rural areas where infrastructure, visibility and enforcement remain limited despite ongoing road improvement efforts. This study examined changes in the severity of pedestrian crashes in rural Ghana between 2011 to 2015 and 2016 to 2020 using police-reported crash data from the Building and Road Research Institute. A random-parameters multinomial logit model with heterogeneity in means was applied to assess how roadway, environmental and location-specific factors influenced pedestrian injury outcomes over time. The analysis covered 8378 pedestrian-involved crashes distributed between the two study periods, focusing on how evolving infrastructure and environmental conditions shaped injury severity. The results indicate that the share of serious injury outcomes increased, despite the total number of crashes declining slightly. The modelling results showed that improved road surfaces and rehabilitated rural highways were associated with higher fatality likelihoods. In the 2011 to 2015 period, good shoulders and tarred roads were found as protective factors against serious injuries, but these effects weakened in the later period (2016 to 2020). Lighting conditions and intersection types continued to play significant roles, with unlit nighttime environments increasing fatal crash risk, while T-junctions and divided highways were linked to serious injury outcomes. The influence of non-intersection locations shifted from a risk factor to a protective element in the 2016 to 2020 period, suggesting modest improvements in mid-block safety or behavioural adaptations by pedestrians. These findings underscore the importance of a systemic approach to rural road safety, focusing on engineering, enforcement, education and community engagement. Infrastructure enhancements alone, without parallel speed management, visibility improvements and behavioural measures are insufficient to mitigate crash severity. The study recommends integrating rural traffic-calming strategies, improved road lighting, clearly marked pedestrian walkways and consistent shoulder maintenance into Ghana's road safety agenda.